中国粮食价格支持政策对粮食安全与农民收入的影响研究

　　民以食为天，吃饱饭是人民群众生存发展的最基本需求。近年来，国家坚持并完善最低收购价政策，结合生产成本等因素，连续提高稻谷、小麦最低收购价格，有效发挥了政策托底作用。在考虑到政策的影响机制前提下，本研究采用部分均衡模型，探讨了目前价格扶持政策的直接影响，并模拟了这些影响对粮食安全的有效性。本研究对国家粮食安全战略和粮食价格政策改革具有启发意义。

暂缺《中国粮食价格支持政策对粮食安全与农民收入的影响研究》作者简介

Preface
Chapter 1 Introduction
 1.1 Background
 1.2 Literature review
 1.2.1 Studies on grain price support policies
 1.2.2 Studies on grain production costs
 1.2.3 Studies on reform of grain price support policy
 1.3 Justification
 1.4 Objective
 1.5 Research significance
 1.6 Innovation
Chapter 2 Evolution of grain price policies in China
 2.1 Market liberalization (1949-1952)
 2.2 State monopoly (1953-1984)
 2.3 Dual-track pricing system (1985-1992)
 2.4 Protection price policy (1993-2003)
 2.5 Minimum purchasing price policy (2004-present)
 2.6 Summary
Chapter 3 Implementation of current price support policy and changes in grain market
 3.1 Implementation of price support policy
 3.1.1 Current grain price support policy in China
 3.1.2 Policy implementing areas
 3.1.3 Announce of grain support prices
 3.1.4 Changes in grain support prices
 3.2 Grain marketing changes after policy implementation
 3.2.1 Grain price changes
 3.2.2 Grain production costs increase
 3.2.3 Grain production increases
 3.2.4 Grain ending stocks increase
 3.2.5 Grain imports increase
 3.3 Summary
Chapter 4 Effect of price support policy on grain prices
 4.1 Grain price changes
 4.1.1 Changes in rice prices
 4.1.2 Changes in wheat prices
 4.2 Impact mechanism of price support policy
 4.3 Empirical analysis on the effect of price support policy on grain prices
 4.3.1 Model specification
 4.3.2 Data
 4.3.3 Estimated results
 4.4 Summary
Chapter 5 Effect of price support policy on grain production costs
 5.1 Grain price support policy and production costs in China
 5.2 Methodology
 5.2.1 Panel unit root test
 5.2.2 Panel cointegration test
 5.2.3 Panel long-run Granger causality
 5.3 Data
 5.4 Empirical Results
 5.4.1 Unit root test
 5.4.2 Panel Cointegration
 5.4.3 Panel Causality test
 5.5 Summary
Chapter 6 Grain supply and demand model for price policy simulation
 6.1 Studies on partial equilibrium mode
 6.2 Model structure
 6.2.1 Production sector
 6.2.2 Consumption sector
 6.2.3 Trade sector
 6.2.4 Price and cost linkages
 6.2.5 Market clearance
 6.3 Model estimation
 6.3.1 Data
 6.3.2 Estimated results
 6.4 Summary
Chapter 7 Simulations on impact of price support policy
 7.1 Simulation scenarios
 7.2 Simulation results
 7.2.1 Changes in grain marketing
 7.2.2 Food security indicators
 7.2.3 Grain production revenue
 7.3 Summary
Chapter 8 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
 8.1 Conclusions
 8.1.1 Main problems with the price support policy
 8.1.2 Grain price support policy determines grain market price
 8.1.3 Grain price support policy increases grain production costs
 8.1.4 Effect of price support policy adjustment on grain supply and demand
 8.1.5 Effect of price support policy adjustment on food security
 8.1.6 Effect of price support policy adjustment on farmers' grain income
 8.2 Policy Recommendations
 8.2.1 Maintain an appropriate level of grain price support to firmly guard the absolute food security
 8.2.2 Implement producer subsidies to ensure the grain income is not reduced
 8.2.3 Remove the mechanism of setting price support referringto production costs
 8.2.4 Implement price controls on agricultural input factors
 8.2.5 Implement differentiated grain price support policies to promote agricultural supply-side structural reform
References