教育会输给技术吗 ：人工智能在阅读和数学中的进展

　　人工智能的进步正在引领一场迅猛的技术变革。理解人工智能的能力与人类技能的关联，认识它们随时间推移而发展的状况，对于理解这一变革过程至关重要。 2016年和2021年，OECD两次运用“国际成人能力测评项目”，测评了人工智能的读写和计算能力。研究表明，人工智能在“国际成人能力测评项目”测试中的表现可能优于大部分成人，其读写能力可以超过90%的成人，计算能力可以超过57%～88%的成人。据专家预测，到2026年， 人工智能将可能完成“国际成人能力测评项目”中所有的读写和计算测试。这些研究是如何进行的？人工智能的能力如何测评？人工智能的发展对人类就业和教育有什么影响？教育该如何应对？ 答案尽在本书中。

　　经 济 合 作 与 发 展 组 织（OECD）是各国政府合作商讨应对经济、社会和环境全球化挑战的特别组织。OECD还是促进各国相互理解，帮助各国政府应对新局势、 新问题的前线力量，例如企业管治、信息经济以及人口老龄化的挑战。OECD的出版物广泛传播该组织收集的统计数据，内容涉及经济、社会和 环境问题的研究结果，以及其成员国达成一致的协议、指导方针和标准。

纲要······················································································1
方法论·············································································2
主要发现··········································································2
结论················································································4

第一章 搭建舞台：评估人工智能影响的方法 ································7
测量人工智能能力和影响的已有研究 ··································· 10
人工智能能力探索性测评的目标 ········································· 15
本报告的结构·································································· 18
参考文献········································································ 18
注释·············································································· 20

第二章 人类技能与人工智能能力的演变 ···································· 23
技能供给的变化······························································· 25
人工智能能力的最新发展 ·················································· 36
测量人工智能能力的重要性 ··············································· 46
参考文献········································································ 48
附录2.A　补充表格 ·························································· 52
注释·············································································· 62

第三章　基于“成人技能调查”的人工智能能力测评的方法论 ·········· 63
“成人技能调查”概述 ························································ 64
确定一组计算机科学家 ····················································· 70
收集专家判断·································································· 72
问卷开发········································································ 74
构建人工智能读写和计算能力表现的综合度量 ······················· 76
困难挑战和经验教训 ························································ 77
参考文献········································································ 79

第四章　专家对人工智能读写和计算能力的测评 ··························· 81
人工智能在读写领域的能力评估 ········································· 82
人工智能在计算领域的能力评估 ········································· 96
参考文献·······································································111
附录4.A　补充表格 ·························································112

第五章　2016—2021年人工智能读写和计算能力的变化 ················113
人工智能读写能力随时间推移的变化 ··································115
人工智能计算能力随时间推移的变化 ··································123
参考文献·······································································131
附录5.A　补充图表 ·························································131
注释·············································································135

第六章　人工智能能力的持续进步对就业和教育的影响 ·················137
测评结果概要·································································138
不断发展的人工智能读写和计算能力对政策的影响 ················145
测评人工智能的新方法 ····················································158
参考文献·······································································159
注释·············································································162

译后记 ················································································163