装备体系贡献率评估：理论、方法与应用

　　本书包含三篇内容。第一篇为体系贡献率评估理论，主要从装备的体系化发展与运用要求出发，建立了体系贡献率评估的研究框架，梳理了支撑贡献率研究的体系工程、系统科学等方面的基础理论，构建了评估基准流程和指标框架，并在每个流程中都有一系列方法作为技术支撑。第二篇为体系贡献率评估方法，主要以典型装备系统体系贡献率评估方法为基础，分别从基于OODA的体系贡献率能效综合评估方法、面向使命任务的体系贡献率能效综合评估方法，以及面向规划计划的项目体系贡献率评估方法三方面开展评估方法研究。第三篇为体系贡献率评估应用，主要围绕装备系统体系贡献率和装备项目体系贡献率两方面的典型案例进行应用验证。本书可作为战略规划部门、装备论证部门、试验鉴定基地和国防工业总体部门开展装备规划论证、装备体系建设与运用等工作的参考书，也可以作为系统工程专业研究生实践教学的参考书。

　　李小波，男，湖南衡南人。2013年获得国防科技大学系统工程专业博士学位，现为国防科技大学系统工程学院副教授，中国仿真学会人工社会专委会委员。主要研究方向为战略管理与仿真预实践、体系设计与贡献率评估。发表系统工程、建模仿真论文50余篇，其中SCI检索10余篇，获得国家发明专利4项。第一作者论文获得2012亚洲仿真会议最佳论文奖、2018年中国仿真大会优秀论文奖。

第一篇 体系贡献率评估理论
第1 章 体系贡献率评估概述·························································.002
1.1 战略规划视野下的体系贡献率问题背景···································.002
1.1.1 体系贡献率：使命组织发展的核心价值观························.002
1.1.2 面向战略规划研究的体系贡献率问题分析························.004
1.2 体系贡献率的概念特性························································.008
1.2.1 体系贡献率的概念内涵················································.008
1.2.2 体系贡献率的基本特性················································.011
1.3 体系贡献率评估的研究框架··················································.012
1.3.1 问题域研究框架·························································.012
1.3.2 技术域研究框架·························································.014
1.3.3 总体研究框架····························································.014
1.4 体系贡献率评估的研究进展··················································.015
1.4.1 国内研究进展综述······················································.015
1.4.2 国外研究进展综述······················································.023
1.4.3 研究进展小结····························································.026
1.4.4 重点研究方向····························································.027
第2 章 体系贡献率评估的基础理论··············································.029
2.1 复杂系统与复杂网络···························································.029
2.1.1 复杂系统的净贡献概念················································.029
2.1.2 复杂适应系统理论······················································.029
2.1.3 复杂网络理论····························································.030
2.1.4 超网络理论·······························································.030
2.2 体系工程与能力机理···························································.031
2.2.1 体系贡献率的能力基准：基于能力的体系工程思想············.031
2.2.2 体系贡献率的作用原理：体系网络任务链路动量原理·········.035
2.2.3 体系贡献率的成因机理：体系协同、适应与层次涌现特性···.037
2.2.4 体系贡献率的能力培育：作战体系能力生成周期模型·········.040
2.3 体系能力与效能及特性评估··················································.040
2.3.1 体系能力评估····························································.041
2.3.2 体系效能评估····························································.048
2.3.3 体系特性评估····························································.050
2.4 体系仿真实验与认知演化计算···············································.052
2.4.1 体系仿真实验····························································.052
2.4.2 认知演化计算····························································.058
2.4.3 体系动力学仿真·························································.064
第3 章 体系贡献率评估的基准流程··············································.065
3.1 体系贡献率评估需求分析·····················································.065
3.1.1 国家安全战略需求分析················································.066
3.1.2 重要作战方向分析······················································.067
3.1.3 体系使命能力分析······················································.068
3.1.4 作战任务活动分析······················································.069
3.1.5 装备功能要求分析······················································.070
3.1.6 装备评估需求分析······················································.071
3.2 体系贡献率评估方案设计·····················································.072
3.2.1 明确评估问题对象······················································.072
3.2.2 设置军事作战想定······················································.075
3.2.3 构建评估指标框架······················································.076
3.2.4 拟制总体评估方案······················································.077
3.3 体系贡献率全局能力评估·····················································.078
3.3.1 能力评估模型构建······················································.079
3.3.2 多源数据获取融合······················································.080
3.3.3 能力评估模型解算······················································.081
3.3.4 能力贡献结果计算······················································.081
3.3.5 能力评估结果分析······················································.082
3.4 体系贡献率重点效能评估·····················································.083
3.4.1 效能评估方案制定······················································.084
3.4.2 效能仿真想定设置······················································.084
3.4.3 效能仿真实验设计······················································.085
3.4.4 仿真模型开发集成······················································.085
3.4.5 仿真实验运行表现······