风险量化：管理、诊断与避险

　　Enterprise-wide risk management （ERM） is a key issue for board of directors worldwide. Its proper implementation ensures transparent governance with all stakeholders’ interests integrated into the strategic equation. Furthermore， Risk quantification is the cornerstone of effective risk management，at the strategic and tactical level， covering finance as well as ethics considerations. Both downside and upside risks （threats & opportunities） must be assessed to select the most efficient risk control measures and to set up efficient risk financing mechanisms. Only thus will an optimum return on capital and a reliable protection against bankruptcy be ensured， i.e. long term sustainable development.　Within the ERM framework， each individual operational entity is called upon to control its own risks， within the guidelines set up by the board of directors， whereas the risk financing strategy is developed and implemented at the corporate level to optimise the balance between threats and opportunities， systematic and non systematic risks.　This book is designed to equip each board member， each executives and each field manager， with the tool box enabling them to quantify the risks within his/her jurisdiction to all the extend possible and thus make sound， rational and justifiable decisions， while recognising the limits of the exercise. Beyond traditional probability analysis， used since the 18th Century by the insurance community， it offers insight into new developments like Bayesian expert networks， Monte-Carlo simulation， etc. with practical illustrations on how to implement them within the three steps of risk management， diagnostic， treatment and audit. With a foreword by Catherine Veret and an introduction by Kevin Knight.

暂缺《风险量化：管理、诊断与避险》作者简介

Forewords
Introduction.
1 Foundations
　Risk management: principles and practice
　　Definitions
　　　Systematic and unsystematic risk
　　　Insurable risks
　　　Exposure
　　　Management
　　　Risk management
　　Risk management objectives
　　　Organizational objectives
　　　Other significant objectives
　　Risk management decision process
　　　Step 1–Diagnostic of exposures
　　　Step 2–Risk treatment
　　　Step 3–Audit and corrective actions
　　State of the art and the trends in risk management
　　　Risk profile, risk map or risk matrix
　　Risk financing and strategic financing
　　　From risk management to strategic risk management
　　　From managing property to managing reputation
　　　　From risk manager to chief risk officer
　　　Why is risk quantification needed?
　Risk quantification – a knowledge-based approach
　　Introduction
　　Causal structure of risk
　　　Building a quantitative causal model of risk
　　　Exposure, frequency, and probability
　　　Exposure, occurrence, and impact drivers
　　　Controlling exposure, occurrence, and impact
　　　Controllable, predictable, observable, and hidden drivers
　　　Cost of decisions
　　　Risk financing
　　　Risk management programme as an influence diagram
　　　Modelling an individual risk or the risk management programme
　Summary
2 Tool Box
　Probability basics
　　Introduction to probability theory
　　Conditional probabilities
　　Independence
　　Bayes’ theorem
　　Random variables
　　Moments of a random variable
　　　Continuous random variables
　　Main probability distributions
　　　Introduction–the binomial distribution
　　　Overview of usual distributions
　　Fundamental theorems of probability theory
　　Empirical estimation
　　　Estimating probabilities from data
　　　Fitting a distribution from data
　　Expert estimation
　　　From data to knowledge
　　　Estimating probabilities from expert knowledge
　　　Estimating a distribution from expert knowledge
　　　Identifying the causal structure of a domain
　Conclusion
　Bayesian networks and influence diagrams
　　Introduction to the case
　　Introduction to Bayesian networks
　　　Nodes and variables
　　　Probabilities
　　　Dependencies
　　Inference
　　Learning
　　Extension to influence diagrams
　Introduction to Monte Carlo simulation
　　Introduction
　　　Introductory example: structured funds
　　Risk management example 1 – hedging weather risk
　　　Description
　　　Collecting information
　　　Model
　　　Manual scenario
　　　Monte Carlo simulation
　　　Summary
　　Risk management example 2– potential earthquake in cement industry
　　　Analysis
　　　Model
　　　Monte Carlo simulation
　　　Conclusion
　　A bit of theory
　　　Introduction
　　　Definition
　　　Estimation according to Monte Carlo simulation
　　　Random variable generation
　　　Variance reduction
　Software tools
3 Quantitative Risk Assessment: A Knowledge Modelling Process
4 Identifying Risk Control Drivers
5 Risk Financing: The Right Cost of Risks
Index