中国海外投资国家风险评级报告. 2019

　　Abstract：China's is the world's second-largest overseas investor. But the external risks facing Chinese firms in overseas investment saw a clearincrease. This book quantitatively assesses the main risks facing Chinese enterprises investing abroad. The rating system designs five major indexes that comprise 41 sub-indexes. The five indexes include economic foundation， debt repayment capacity， social elasticity， political risk， and relations with China. On the whole， the developed countries have better economic foundations， lower political risks， better social elasticity and stronger debt repayment capacity； therefore， the overall risks of investing in those countries are obviously lower than in emerging-market economies.However， the U. S. drops 10 spots in the rankings. The China-U.S.trade friction， as well as the policies of restriction and suppression to Chinese multinational corporations deteriorated the China-U.S. relationship.Likewise， some of the policies of the Trump administration which cause the deeper division in the American society also make the score of Social Elasticity go down obviously. For the emerging-market economies， their gap with the developed countries in terms of economic foundation and political risk remains huge； political instability may affect the process of economic recovery and in turn undermine the investment environment. Although the whole risks of the emerging-market economies are higher than that of the developed economies， the emerging-market economies are still the most potential destination for China's overseas investment， because there are huge markets potential and demand for infrastructure.

　　Ming Zhang is Senior Research Fellow and PhD supervisor at Institute of World Economics and Politics（IWEP）in Chinese Academy of So-cial Sciences（CASS）. He is also Director of Department of International In-vestment at IWEP. His main research area is intemational finance and macro-economics. He is named as young elitists of China's ten thousands plan，young financial scholar of China's Financial Museum and outstanding member of Communist Party in China's State organs， He is chief economist at Ping An Se-curities Co.