Annual Report on Energy-Saving and New Energy Ve

　　This report consists of 14 special topics in 6 chapters， it elaborates China’s status quo on energy-saving and new energy vehicle development from the aspects of industrial environment， fuel consumption， product development trend， technology application， energy consumption evaluation and overseas development. Amongst the report， the industrial environment part can be divided into 3 branches such as energy situation， policy environment and market environment， they respectively narrate the overall development status for China’s energy-saving and new-energy vehicle industry. The fuel consumption part separately demonstrates fuel consumption management process for both passenger cars and commercial vehicles. The product development trend part analyzes the development features of vehicle attributes， and explores the relationship between vehicle attributes and energy consumption. The technology application part illustrates features of the energy-saving and new-energy technologies in application， meanwhile it also carries out special study on 48 V hybrid， fuel cell and other technologies which draw great attention to the automotive industry. The energy consumption evaluation part concludes the domestic passenger cars energy-saving competitiveness ranking and the fuel consumption differences analysis between real driving environment and laboratory cycles through the mathematical model analysis. The overseas development part compares the domestic and foreign policy， market， technologies in a horizontal way， it provides constructive information to the development of automotive industry.

　　赵冬昶，中国人民大学产业经济学博士，高 级经济师，高 级工程师。2011年起任职于中国汽车技术研究中心数据资源中心，主要从事汽车节能领域相关研究工作。 张鹏，高 级工程师，2005年毕业于吉林大学机械电子工程专业。在中国汽车技术研究中心数据资源中心负责新能源汽车发展研究、生态汽车评价工作。

Contents
ⅠIndustrial Environment Part
Special Topic 1 Energy Situations and Vehicle Energy Consumption Measurement2
1．1 Global Vehicle Energy Development Strategies2
1．1．1 China’s Energy Situations and Vehicle Energy Strategy2
1．1．2 Energy Situation and Vehicle Energy Development Strategies of the EU， the U．S．， and Japan5
1．2 Measurement of Vehicle Energy Consumption in China9
1．2．1 Measurement Model of Total Vehicle Energy Consumption9
1．2．2 Vehicle Population Structure Based on Ages10
1．2．3 Driving Range of Vehicles12
1．2．4 Average Fuel Consumption Based on Vehicle Types14
1．2．5 Vehicle Survival Rate Analysis14
1．2．6 2016 Vehicle Energy Measurement Analysis15
Special Topic 2 Overall Development of Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry18
2．1 Overall Development of the Energy-Saving Vehicle Industry18
2．1．1 Policy Environment18
2．1．2 China’s Current Energy-Saving Vehicle Development
21
2．2 Overall Development of the New Energy Vehicle Industry28
2．2．1 Policy Environment28
2．2．2 Market Environment of New Energy Vehicles30
2．2．3 Supporting Environment for NEV Infrastructure32
2．2．4 Commercial Operation Modes and Environment of New Energy Vehicles35
II Fuel Consumption Part
Special Topic 3 Development Trend of the Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Cars38
3．1 The Fleet-Wide Average Fuel Compliance39
3．1．1 The Development Trend of the Fleet-Wide Average Fuel Consumption39
3．1．2 Fuel Consumption Change per Vehicle40
3．1．3 Analysis on the Gap with the Energy-Saving Objective of 202041
3．2 Fuel Consumption of Different Categories of Models42
3．2．1 Fuel Consumption Change of Different Model Types42
3．2．2 Fuel Consumption Change of Different Origins43
3．3 CAFC and Compliance Performance of Enterprises45
3．3．1 Analysis of Quantity and Production Volume of Compliant Enterprises45
3．3．2 Analysis of Enterprises with Excellent Compliance Performance47
3．3．3 Analysis on Compliance Performance of Top 10 Enterprises by Production/Import Volume49
3．4 The Impact of New-Energy Passenger Cars on the Calculation of Average Fuel Consumption
52
3．4．1 Fleet-Wide Average Fuel Consumption before and after the Inclusion of New-Energy Passenger Cars into Calculation52
3．4．2 CAFC of Typical Enterprises before and after the Inclusion of New-Energy Passenger Cars into the Calculation53
Special Topic 4 Fuel Consumption of Commercial Vehicles 57
4．1 Classification of Commercial Vehicles 57
4．2 Fuel Consumption of Light Commercial Vehicles 59
4．2．1 Fuel Consumption of Different Vehicle Types 59
4．2．2 Comparison between Fuel Consumption and Limit Value 64
4．3 Fuel Consumption of Heavy Commercial Vehicles 66
4．3．1 Fuel Consumption of Different Vehicle Types 66
4．3．2 Comparison between Fuel Consumption and Limit Value 71
III Product Development Trend Part
Special Topic 5 Development Trend of Energy-Saving
Properties of Passenger Cars78
5．1 Development Trend of Energy-Saving Properties of Vehicles78
5．1．1 Curb Weight78
5．1．2 Footprint Area83
5．1．3 Driving Type87
5．1．4 Average Displacement91
5．1．5 Average Power97
5．1．6 Average Torque101
5．1．7 Power/Curb-Weight106
5．1．8 Power/Displacement111
5．2 Influence of Vehicle Properties on Fuel Consumption116
5．2．1 Correlation Analysis on the Contributory Factors of Fuel Consumption116
5．2．2 Building Regression Analysis Model118
5．2．3 Empirical Research on Domestic Passenger Cars 119
Special Topic 6 Development Trend and Characteristics of NEV121
6．1 Development Characteristics of New-Energy Passenger Cars121
6．1．1 Analysis on the Characteristics of Different Technology Types of New-Energy Passenger Cars121
6．1．2 Analysis on the Promotion Characteristics of Different Using Purposes of New-Energy Passenger Cars124
6．1．3 Analysis on the Distribution Characteristics of Various Promotion Regions of New-Energy Passenger Cars 126
6．1．4 Analysis on the Product Structure and Performance Trend of New-Energy Passenger Cars128
6．2 Development Characteristics of New-Energy Commercial Vehicles133
6．2．1 Analysis on the Characteristics of Different Technology Types of New-Energy Commercial Vehicles135
6．2．2 Analysis on the Promotion Characteristics of Different Using Purposes of New-Energy Commercial Vehicles 136
6．2．3 Analysis on the Distribution Characteristics of Various Promotion Regions of New-Energy Commercial Vehicles139
6．2．4 Analysis on the Product Structure and Performance Trend of New-Energy Commercial Vehicles139
IV Technology Application Part
Special Topic 7 Promotion and Application of Energy-Saving Technologies of Passenger Cars 146
7．1 Turbocharging Technology146
7．2 GDI Technology150
7．3 Three-Cylinder Engine153
7．3．1 Development of Three-Cylinder Engine Technology153
7．3．2 Overview of Enterprises and Models Utilizing the Three-Cylinder Engine Technology155
7．4 Miller Cycle Technology159
7．4．1 Development of Miller Cycle Technology159
7．4．2 Overview of Enterprises and Models Utilizing Miller Cycle Technology162
7．4．3 Introduction of Typical Miller Cycle Engine164
7．5 Advanced Transmission Technology166
7．5．1 Development of Advanced Transmission Technology166
7．5．2 Overview of Enterprises and Models Using 9AT， CVT and DCT169
7．6 Idling Stop-Start Technology172
7．7 Hybrid Technology175
7．7．1 Development of Hybrid Technology176
7．7．2 Overview of Enterprises and Models Using the Hybrid Technology178
Special Topic 8 Technological Supporting Trend of Key Parts and Components of NEV182
8．1 Power Battery182
8．2 Drive Motor191
8．3 Controller for Complete Vehicle193
Special Topic 9 Mono-Graphic Study on Hot Industry Technologies196
9．1 48 V Micro Hybrid System196
9．1．1 48 V Micro Hybrid Energy-Saving System196
9．1．2 Systematic Solution on Reduction of CO2 Emission in the Future198
9．1．3 Optimizing Energy Management202
9．1．4 Conclusion and Outlook204
9．2 Analysis on the Development Trend of Automotive Fuel Cell Technology204
9．2．1 Basic Principles and Characteristics of FCV205
9．2．2 Status Quo of FCV Technology207
9．2．3 Overview of Internationally Typical Fuel Cell Vehicles 210
9．2．4 Restriction Factors Curbing the Commercialization of Domestic Fuel Cell Vehicles214
9．2．5 Development Trend of Domestic Fuel Cell Vehicle Technology215
9．3 A Brief Introduction to the Technical Path of Battery Electric Vehicles by BAIC BJEV216
9．3．1 Future Technical Planning218
9．3．2 Introduction of Advanced Models226
V Energy Consumption Evaluation Part
Special Topic 10 Evaluation of Energy-Saving Compe- titiveness of Passenger Cars 230
10．1 Purpose and Significance of Energy-Saving Competitiveness Evaluation230
10．2 Building the Evaluation System of Energy-Saving Competitiveness of Passenger Cars231
10．2．1 Data Index System of Factor Analysis231
10．2．2 Introduction on the Evaluation Method of Energy-Saving Competitiveness232
10．3 Evaluation and Ranking of Energy-Saving Competitiveness235
10．3．1 Evaluation and Ranking of Energy-Saving Competiti-veness of Sedans235
10．3．2 Evaluation and Ranking of Energy-Saving Competiti-veness of SUVs237
10．3．3 Evaluation and Ranking of Energy-Saving Competiti-veness of MPVs239
Special Topic 11 Evaluation of the Gap between the Real-World Fuel Consumption and the Working-Condition-Based Fuel Consumption of Passenger Cars241
11．1 Background of Fuel Consumption Gap Evaluation in China242
11．1．1 Working-Condition-Based Fuel Consumption242
11．1．2 Real-World Fuel Consumption244
11．1．3 Purpose and Significance of Fuel Consumption Gap Evaluation245
11．2 Introduction on Study Method and Data Basis 246
11．2．1 Study Method246
11．2．2 Data Source and Sample Information246
11．3 FC Gap Analysis247
11．3．1 Overall Fuel Consumption Gap247
11．3．2 Regional Fuel Consumption Gap250
11．3．3 Technical Fuel Consumption Gap251
11．3．4 Brand Fuel Consumption Gap255
11．4 Evaluation Conclusions of the Gap between the Real-World Fuel Consumption and the Working-Condition-Based Fuel Consumption259
11．4．1 Evaluation Summary of Fuel Consumption Gap259
11．4．2 Analysis of Reasons behind FC Gap260
11．4．3 Expectation of Vehicle Energy-Saving Management Policies261
VI Overseas Development Part
Special Topic 12 Study on Models with Low Fuel Consump-tion in Germany266
12．1 Classification and Registered Volume of German Passenger Cars in Q1 of 2017267
12．2 Registered Volume of Compact Models by Fuel Types in March of 2017268
12．3 Top 10 Models with Low Gasoline Consumption in Q1 of 2017 (Including HEVs)270
12．4 Compact Models with Low Fuel Consumption (Non-HEV， Non-Dual-Fuel) in Q1 of 2017270
12．5 Parameters and Configuration List of Typical Compact Models with Low Fuel Consumption in Q1 of 2017276
Special Topic 13 Study on the Laws and Regulations of the Zero Emission Vehicle in California， the U．S．278
13．1 Development Process278
13．2 ZEV Regulation 2009-2017280
13．3 Changes in ZEV Regulations Since 2018291
13．4 ZEV Management Process297
13．5 Influence of ZEV Regulation299
13．6 Future Development Trend of ZEV in California 302
Special Topic 14 Study on Development Trend of NEVs in Foreign Countries304
14．1 Analysis of the Sales Volume Trend of New Energy Passenger Cars around the World304
14．1．1 Analysis of Market Sales Volume around the World 304
14．1．2 Countries Ranking by Sales Volume306
14．1．3 Automakers Ranking by Sales Volume306
14．1．4 Model Ranking by Sales Volume307
14．2 Trace of the Policies of New Energy Vehicles in Key Countries309
14．2．1 The United States309
14．2．2 South Korea309
14．2．3 Germany309
14．2．4 France310
14．2．5 The United Kingdom310
14．2．6 Norway311
14．3 Analysis on the Development of New Energy Vehicles in Key Automakers311
14．3．1 Tesla Inc-Focus on BEVs and Actively Develop Unmanned Technology and Solar-Powered Technology311
14．3．2 Nissan Motor-Insist on BEV Route313
14．3．3 Toyota Motor-Based on Hybrid Electric Technology Promote the Development of Plug-in， Battery Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Technology314
14．3．4 BMW Group-Focus on the Common Development of BMW ConnectedDrive， BEVs and PHEVs and Fuel Cell Technology315
14．3．5 General Motors-Synchronously Develop BEVs， Extended Range Electric Vehicles and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles316
Appendix
Summary of Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Policies in 2016318