China Agricultural Outlook中国农业展望报告20（2017-2026）

　　Since2014，China，drawingupontheexperienceandpracticesofcountrieswithmaturemarketeconomytoguidemarketexpectation，hasconvenedtheChinaAgriculturalOutlookConferenceandreleasedtheChinaAgriculturalOutlookReportforthreeconsecutiveyears;inparticular，theChinaAgriculturalOutlook（2015-2024）releasedinthenameoftheMarketEarlyWarningExpertCommittee，MinistryofAgriculturein2015hasprovidedimportantreferencefordomesticmarketplayersandrelevantsectorsregardingadjustingtheexpectationofagriculturalmarket.Theyear2016markstheopeningofthe13thFive-YearPlan（FYP）periodandisalsothekeystageforsupply-sidestructuralreformsinagriculture.ThefurtherimprovementofthesystemofChinaagriculturaloutlookandthereleaseoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook（2016-2025）isanimportantmeasuretoimplementarangeofimportantdevelopmentstrategiesandarrangements，includingSeveralOpinionsoftheCentralCommitteeofCPCandtheStateCouncilonPromotingtheReformofPriceMechanism，SeveralOpinionsoftheCPCCentralCommitteeandtheStateCouncilontheImplementationofNewConceptsontheDevelopmentandtheAccelerationoftheAgriculturalModernizationfortheRealizationofModerateProsperityinAllRespects，GuidanceoftheStateCouncilonAdvancingtheInternetPlusInitiativeandCircularoftheStateCouncilonPrintingandIssuingtheActionOutlineforPromotingBigDataDevelopment，andisofcrucialimportancetoreviewthe12thFYPperiodandplanforagriculturaldevelopmentinthe13thFYPperiod.ThebasicconclusionoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook（2016-2025）isthebaselineprojectionmadebyexpertsandrelevantsectors，adoptingtheChinaAgriculturalMonitoringandEarly-warningSystem（CAMES），developedbytheAgriculturalMonitoringandEarly-warningTeamofAgriculturalInformationInsituteofCAAS，onthebasisoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook（2015-2024），takingintoconsiderationdevelopmentsofmarket，policy，climateandmacroeconomicsofthepreviousyear，andbasedonspecificassumptionsofmacroeconomics，agriculturalpolicies，climateconditions，innovationofscienceandtechnology，resourceendowmentandchangesofinternationalmarkets.BaselinedatamainlycomesfromstatisticsreleasedbyChinastatisticsdepartmentsandtheagriculturalmarketmonitoringdatareleasedbyagriculturaldepartments，andalsoincludesfieldinvestigationdataaccumulatedbyrelevantresearchinstitutions.TheChinaAgriculturalOutlook（2016-2025），inparticular，reviewedthesituationofagriculturalmarketinChinaduringthe12thFYPperiod，madeprojectionsonthefeaturesandtrendoftheoperationofChina'sagriculturalmarketduringthe13thFYPperiod，thuswillprovideimportantreferenceforthedevelopmentandimplementationofthenewFYP.TheMarketEarlyWarningExpertCommitteeofMOAreviewedandapprovedthebasicconclusionoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook（2016-2025）.TheCommitteeiscomposedofexpertsandacademiciansfromthefollowingentities：DepartmentofAgriculturalEconomy，NDRC，DepartmentofEconomyandTrade，NDRC，AcademyofMacroeconomicResearch，NDRC，CirculationIndustryPromotionCenter，MOFCOM，ChinaNationalGrainandOilsInformationCenter，RenminUniversityofChina，ChineseAcademyofSocialSciences（CASS），UniversityofInternationalBusinessandEconomics，ShanghaiJiaoTongUniversity，DepartmentofSectoralPolicyandLaw，MOA，DepartmentofMarketandEconomicInformation，MOA，DepartmentofDevelopmentandPlanning，MOA，DepartmentofCropProduction，MOA，DepartmentofAnimalProduction，MOA，FisheriesBureau，MOA，RuralEconomyResearchCenter，MOA，InformationCenter，MOA，AgriculturalTradePromotionCenter，MOA，InstituteofAgriculturalEconomicsandDevelopment，CAAS，andAgricultureInformationInstitute，CAAS.ExpertsofthesystemofindustrialtechnologiesofmodernagriculturehavemadeimportantcontributionstotheOutlookReportintermsoftheprovisionofdataandthediscussionandrevisionofOutlookconclusions.EverychapteroftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook（2016-2025）hasbeenbasedonyearsofstudyofproductanalystsandthedistillationoftheirhardworkandwisdom.Tobespecific，Chapter1OverviewisauthoredbyLiGanqiong;Chapter2Cerealsiswrittenbyriceanalysts，PengChao，ZhangHuanandGaoQiang，wheatanalystCaoHuiandcornanalystsXuWeipingandXiYinsheng;Chapter3OilseedsandOilseedProductsiswrittenbysoybeananalystsYinRuifengandXuXuegao，oilseedanalystsZhangWenliandLiSonglin;Chapter4CottonisauthoredbycottonanalystsZhaiXuelingandLiXiang;Chapter5SugariseditedbysugaranalystsXuXue，MaKaiandMaGuangxia;Chapter6VegetablesisauthoredbyvegetableanalystsLiHuishang，KongFantaoandWangShengwei;Chapter7FruitsiseditedbyfruitanalystsWuJieandZhaoJunye;Chapter8MeatisauthoredbyporkanalystsZhuZengyongandZhangXuebiao，poultryanalystsZhangLiandZhuHaiboandbeefandmuttonanalystsSiZhizhiandQuChunhong;Chapter9PoultryEggsiswrittenbypoultryegganalystsLiZhemin，LiGanqiongandZhangChao;Chapter10DairyiseditedbydairyanalystsWangDongjieandDongXiaoxia;Chapter11AquaticProductsisauthoredbyaquaticproductanalystsShenChen，LiuJingjingandZhangJingyi;andChapter12FeediswrittenbyfeedanalystsZhangQiaoandTaoSha.AllstaffoftheAgricultureInformationInstitute，CAAS，ledbyDirectorSunTanhasprovidedstrongguaranteeforthehigh-qualityperformanceandsmoothcompletionofOutlookactivitiesfor2016.ChinaAgriculturalMonitoringandEarly-warningInnovationTeam，ledbyResearcherXuShiweiasChiefScientist，hasprovidedbasicdatasystemandCAMESmodelsimulationandpredicationtechnology.Teammembers，includingLiGanqiong，PanYuehong，ZhangYongen，ZhangYumei，WuJianzhai，WangShengwei，WangDongjie，ChenWei，ZhuangJiayu，LiuJiajia，ZhangChao，RenYufeng，LiYanniandWangYu，havedonetremendousconcreteanddetailedworksuchasdatacalculation，reportrevisionandChinese-Englishtranslation.TheChinaAgriculturalScienceandTechnologyPresshasmadeeffortsintype-settingandprinting.ThereleaseoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook（2016-2025），aftertheChinaAgriculturalOutlook（2015-2024），bytheMarketEarlyWarningExpertCommittee，MOA，signifiesthefledglingofagriculturaloutlookactivitiesinChinaandthesteadyandsoliddevelopmentofthesystemofglobalagriculturalsurveyandanalysisinChina.Sincemarketsituationanalysisshouldnotonlybebasedonthelatestinformationofagricultureandrelatedsectors，andmarketdemandandsupplyissusceptibletouncertaintiesofclimate，politicsandpolicy，theChinaAgriculturalOutlook（2016-2025）couldmakingmistakesinitspredications.Wewillgraduallyexploretheestablishmentofmechanismfortheanalysisandassessmentofpredicationdeviationssoastoprovidemoreaccurateinformationforusers.Wesincerelyinvitedomesticandforeigncolleaguestoprovidevaluableopinionsforimprovingourfuturestudies.

　　农业部市场预警专家委员会是2011年11月28日成立的，针对近年来农产品市场波动比较大的现状，为更好地应对和预警，农业部研究决定成立的。委员会的任务是密切关注国内外农产品市场运行情况，及时提出政策建议，还要从稳定农产品市场和促进农民增收出发，适时、主动回应和引导社会舆论。农业部市场预警专家委员会，首批确定了10名委员，聘期为5年。要求专家必须熟悉和掌握我国国民经济运行情况、国家宏观经济政策、农业政策及理论等，能够独立承担和完成专题研究任务。

Table of ContentsChapter 1 Overview 11.1 Environment of macroeconomic and social development in the future ten years 11.1.1 China's economy maintains mid to high growth rate......................................................................................................................................................... 11.1.2 Chinese population will continue to grow............................................................................................................................................................................ 41.1.3 CIP will show a trend of mild increase................................................................................................................................................................................... 91.1.4 Crude oil price will be low in the beginning and high in the end................................................................................................................................. 101.1.5 The income of urban and rural residents continues to grow........................................................................................................................................ 111.1.6 The RMB exchange rate will be steadily weakened......................................................................................................................................................... 131.2 China's agricultural development situations in the future ten years and during the 13th FYP period 141.2.1 China's agricultural development amidst rare opportunities........................................................................................................................................ 141.2.2 Major challenges for agricultural development in China................................................................................................................................................ 151.2.3 Arduous tasks for agricultural development in China..................................................................................................................................................... 15Chapter 2 Cereals 182.1 Rice 182.1.1 General outlook 182.1.2 Production outlook 192.1.3 Consumption outlook 212.1.4 Trade outlook 222.1.5 Price outlook 232.2 Wheat 232.2.1 General outlook 242.2.2 Production outlook 242.2.3 Consumption outlook 252.2.4 Trade outlook 262.2.5 Price outlook 272.3 Corn 272.3.1 General outlook 282.3.2 Production outlook 282.3.3 Consumption outlook 312.3.4 Trade outlook 322.3.5 Price outlook 33Chapter 3 Oil 343.1 Soybean 343.1.1 General outlook 343.1.2 Production outlook 353.1.3 Consumption outlook 363.1.4 Trade outlook 373.1.5 Price outlook 383.2 Oilseeds and oilseed products 393.2.1 General outlook 403.2.2 Production outlook 413.2.3 Consumption outlook 423.2.4 Trade outlook 433.2.5 Price outlook 43Chapter 4 Cotton 454.1 General outlook 454.2 Production outlook 464.3 Consumption outlook 484.4 Trade outlook 494.5 Price outlook 50Chapter 5 Sugar 525.1 General outlook 525.2 Production outlook 535.3 Consumption outlook 545.4 Trade outlook 555.5 Price outlook 56Chapter 6 Vegetables 576.1 General outlook 586.2 Production outlook 606.3 Consumption outlook 616.4 Trade outlook 636.5 Price outlook 64Chapter 7 Fruits 667.1 General outlook 667.2 Production outlook 677.3 Consumption outlook 697.4 Trade outlook 717.5 Price outlook 728.1 Pork 748.1.1 General outlook 748.1.2 Production outlook.............................................................................. 768.1.3 Consumption outlook............................................................................. 778.1.4 Trade outlook 798.1.5 Price outlook 798.2 Poultry 808.2.1 General outlook 818.2.2 Production outlook 828.2.3 Consumption outlook 838.2.4 Trade outlook 848.2.5 Price outlook 858.3 Beef and mutton 868.3.1 General outlook 868.3.2 Production outlook 878.3.3 Consumption outlook 898.3.4 Trade outlook 908.3.5 Price outlook 90Chapter 9 Poultry eggs 929.1 General outlook................................................................................. 929.2 Production outlook.............................................................................. 949.3 Consumption outlook............................................................................. 959.4 Trade outlook 979.5 Price outlook................................................................................... 97Chapter 10 Dairy 10010.1 General outlook................................................................................ 10010.2 Production outlook............................................................................. 10110.3 Consumption outlook............................................................................ 10310.4 Trade outlook.................................................................................. 10510.5 Price outlook.................................................................................. 106Chapter 11 Aquatic products 10711.1 General outlook 10711.2 Production outlook 10811.3 Consumption outlook 11111.4 Trade outlook 11311.5 Price outlook 114Chapter 12 Feed 11612.1 General outlook................................................................................ 11612.2 Production outlook............................................................................. 11712.3 Consumption outlook............................................................................ 11912.4 Price outlook.................................................................................. 121Annex: Supply-demand balance sheet of major agricultural commodities 122