社会迷乱决定因素研究

　　《社会迷乱决定因素研究（英文版）》在总结既往相关研究的基础上，运用跨国数据库与分层线性统计模型，对“迷乱”这一概念进行实证研究，以期验证默顿等犯罪学家就若干人口变量及经济变量在个人与国家（或地区）层面上是否可以解释现今社会迷乱特别是美国社会的迷乱现象。由于犯罪学家对“迷乱”这一核心概念的理解与解释各不相同，自20世纪中叶至本世纪初，他们运用不同的实证研究方法对这一概念进行了研究，以期发现预测个人与社会迷乱程度的关联因素。具体而言，《社会迷乱决定因素研究（英文版）》所使用之原始数据源自1995年《欧洲与世界价值观调查》（Europe and World Value Survey）及联合国有关调查。在对社会迷乱理论进行系统理论回顾、梳理及对既往实证研究进行总结后，借助分层线性模型，系统研究30个主要国家及地区的人口变量及经济变量在个人与国家层面上对社会迷乱之影响。本项实证研究的结果表明，在诸多涉及个人层面的人口变量之中，性别、年龄和婚姻状况等三个主要变量为社会迷乱理论之重要预测因素。而部分与经济有关的变量在个人和国家层面上均显示出对社会迷乱显著的影响。在全部自变量中，社会变迁，特别是一个国家是否曾经历剧烈的历史变迁，对社会迷乱的影响最甚。这项研究支持下述假设：诸国均存在一定程度的社会迷乱，社会迷乱如涂尔干所预测的那样具有普遍性；当个人关注于物质财富上的成功而甚少关注以合理合法的手段来取得这一成功的时候，社会迷乱就会发生；美国社会迷乱的平均水平并非如默顿所预言的那么高，这或许表明“美国梦”正逐渐丧失其由金钱及物欲驱动的本性，人们的思想正在经历一系列的“价值转变”。

　　Dr. Ruohui Zhao is currently an assistant professor of criminology at University of Macau， Macau SAR， China. She earned her Ph.D. in cririainal justice from University of Nebraska at Omaha， USA. Her　research　interests　include criminological theory， juvenile delinquency， and community-based corrections. Her articles have recently appeared or are forthcoming in such journals as Social Forces， International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology， and Criminal Justice and Behavior，

CHAPTER ONE STATEMNET OF THE PROBLEM
　Introduction
　Main Criminological Theories to Explain Crime
　Anomie Theory
　Verification of A Theory
　Purpose of The Current Study
　The Current Study
　Organization of The Book
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE
　Historical Evolution of Anomie Theory
　Theoretical Perspectives
　 The Anomie Perspective
Durkheim's Theory on Social Structure and Anomie
Merton's Instrumental Anomie and Differential Opportunity Strain
Recent Revisions to Anomie Theory--Messner and Rosenfeld's Institutional Anomie Theory
　 The Strain Perspeetive--A Brief Discussion
　Definition and Consequences of Anomie
　Durkheim and Merton's Conceptualization of Anomie
Later Conceptualization of Anomie
Macro-social Anomie vs. Micro-individual Anomie
Operationalization of the Concept of Anomie Scales of Anomie
Explanatory Variables Used in the Previous Studies
One Country Studies:Economic-related Explanatory Variables and Findings
One Country Studies:Non-economic Explanatory Variables and Findings
Cross-national Studies:Explanatory Variables and Findings
　Significance of The Current Study
CHAPTER THREE METHODS
　The Research Hypotheses
　The Necessity of Using Multilevel Analysis
　The Importance of Multi-Level Analysis
　 Limitations of Previous Statistical Techniques in Conducting Multi-Level Analysis
The Advantages of Using Multilevel Statistical Methods
Procedures in Conducting the HLM Analysis
　The Sample
　Individual-level Data Source:The World Values Survey
　National-level Data Sources
　The Variables
　The Dependent Variable
　 The Independent Variables
CHAPTER FOUR RESULTS
　Descriptive Analysis
　Nation Differences in Anomie
　The Independent Variables at the Individual-level
　The Independent Variables at the National-level
　The HLM Analysis
CHAPTER FIVE DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
　Clarification of the Concept of Anomie
　The Determinants of Anomie
　Explaining the Low Level of Anomie in the United States
　Monetary Success vs. Legitimate Means
　Further Discussions on the "Value Shift"
　The Effect of Rapid Social Change on Anomie
Change from One Type of Society to Another --The Nation Effect on Anomie
Interaction of Economic Growth with Nation Type
　The Limitations of the Present Study and Suggestions for the Future Research
Conclusion
REFERENCES
APPENDIX ONE
APPENDIX TWO
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
后记