Technical glitch, Violence inGreece and Historic U.K. elections, acombination of these factors sent theDow plummeting nearly 1,000 pointsThursday before regaining two-thirdsof the ground lost.
But here’s the thing: the marketcould be in for a very bumpy ride inthe coming months—except it won’thave technical glitches to blame. U.S.
debts, more likely than not, could be anunderlying culprit.
In any case, Thursday’s Dowdrama should be a wake-up call thatpolicymakers heed, said Allen Sinai, chief economist and president ofDecision Economics.
The story now is Greece’s debt crisis, and the fear of debt contagionto Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Spain—and EU’s neighbor, the United Kingdom.
All of that may spell trouble for U.S. exports 6 to 18 months from now,Sinai said. Traders realize that, and theyalso realize there’s a risk that theUnited States—with its own largeand growing stockpile of debt—willnot have financial wiggle room toaddress future economic weakness,Sinai said. “Everyone with moneyon the line knows that.”
Not everyone shares the view that the shock from events in Greececould move the U.S. economy in a different direction. What happens toEurope’s biggest economies matters, said Lakshman Achuthan, managingdirector of the Economic Cycle Research Institute. “France and Germanyare not going into recession anytime soon.”
Sinai stressed, however, that the risk of U.S. debt underminingconfidence in the United States’ ability to handle potential shocks doesn’thave to turn out to be reality. “There is time to remove that risk,” he said.
The swelling debt loads of several EU countries, the U.K. and theUnited States means there will be a lot of competition in the market tofinance all that debt in the coming years. “That doesn’t go away unless youtake action,” Sinai said.
To reduce the chances of a U.S. fiscal crisis, the action Sinai andbudget hawks have been urging U.S. policymakers to take now is to puttogether a credible plan to stabilize federal debt that would be implementedover time.
“The longer we wait to act, the greater the number of things that couldset off a crisis,” said Maya MacGuineas,president of the Committee for aResponsible Federal Budget.
Of course, any debt-reduction planwould need to be constructed in such away as to not hamper economic growthor job creation, since both can also helpreduce deficits.
A tall order to be sure, particularlyin such a partisan environment. Butit’s one lawmakers will have to attempt if they want to ensure a moreprosperous future than a federal balance sheet stacked with debt could everdeliver, budget experts say.
