Germany on Friday reasserted itselfas the economic growth engine of the eurozone, after gross domestic product expandedat a stellar 2.2 percent rate in the secondquarter compared with the previous threemonths.
Buoyant exports, aided by a declinein the value of the euro, helped Europe’slargest economy post its fastest expansionsince reunification in 1991,equivalent to anannualized rate of more than 8 per cent.
France also exceeded market expectations,albeit moremodestly, witha 0.6 per cent rise in GDP growth for the period. It doubled its estimate offirst-quarter growth to 0.2 per cent.
“Superman is wearing black, red and gold this year, Germany’snational colors,” said Carsten Brzeski at ING, but warned: “At some stagehe’ll become Clark Kent again. The economy can’t keep growing at thisrate.”
Germany’s Federal Statistics Office also raised its estimate ofseasonally-adjusted first-quarter growth to 0.5 per cent, up 0.3 percentagepoints.
GDP figures for most euro zonemember states are expected later onFriday, with economists forecastinggrowth in the region of 0.7 per centin the three months to the end ofJune.
In the same period, US growthslowed to 0.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter, and Britain’s GDP expanded 1.1per cent using Eurostat’smethodology.
But a sanguine headline figure in the euro zone is likely to concealdeepcracks within the 16-member currencybloc.
In contrast to Germany, the region’s so-called “peripheral”
economies—including Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal—strugglednotably in the second quarter, which was defined by soaringsovereign debtyields in the wake of the Greekbail-out.
Preliminary figures on Thursday showed Greek GDP falling 1.5 percent in the second quarter, the seventh consecutive period of contraction.
Italy grew at 0.4 per cent, but Spain was forecasted to grow at perhaps halfthat rate.
The rest of the euro zone is not much brighter: Germany aloneaccounts for the bulk of the expected rise in growth across the entire eurozone.Nevertheless, if the bloc’s GDP growth meets market expectations, itwill mark the first quarter since the start of the downturn that the bloc hasgrown at a rate much higher than 1.5 per cent a year—its average since thesingle currency was founded in 1999.
That is also the point at which the bloc starts to create jobs, accordingto labor market experts. Unemployment in the euro zone has been stable at10 per cent in the last few months but has yet to experience a meaningfuldecline.
The last two quarters have seen quarter-on-quarter growth wellbeneath that figure, partly because unusually harsh weather in Germanyhampered economic activity.